Gold
A weekly model on gold that holds the metal when conditions favor it and steps aside into cash to avoid its deepest drawdowns.
Gold is famously volatile — buy-and-hold investors saw drawdowns near 45% over this period. The model captured gold's long-term ascent while cutting the worst of those declines by roughly half.
Buy-and-hold gold fell close to 45% during the 2012–2015 decline. By stepping aside into cash during sustained downtrends, the model held its worst case to −15.31% — roughly half.
Gold's upside, without the deepest of its falls.
This model applies the same systematic discipline to gold. Each week it decides whether to hold gold (via the GLD ETF) or move to cash, staying invested when momentum and conditions are favorable and stepping aside during sustained declines.
Gold can deliver powerful returns but is prone to long, painful drawdowns; the model's aim is to participate in the upside while avoiding the deepest of those losses. It offers exposure to an asset that often moves independently of equities and bonds — a diversifying complement within the collection.
Note: because the GLD ETF launched in late 2004, this model's track record begins then — a 21-year hypothetical history rather than the longer record of the equity and fixed-income models.
Everything an auditor would ask for.
All performance shown is hypothetical and back-tested — it does not reflect actual trading with client assets and has inherent limitations (designed with the benefit of hindsight; may not reflect the impact of real market conditions). Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Results are gross of fees; transaction / custodial fees and taxes are not reflected and would reduce results. This is not an offer to sell or a solicitation to buy any investment. Charts use representative illustrative data; final disclaimer wording to be confirmed with counsel / compliance.
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